About

Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Showing posts with label financial crisis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label financial crisis. Show all posts

Wednesday 14 February 2018

Bond Yield Spike Signaling Brand New Crisis

A very interesting chart from Marketwatch.com that shows every time bond yields tagged their long term down trend line a crisis of some proportion erupted we finally manage to pop above that line sowing the seeds for the next major crisis:
financial crisis 2018


What is interesting is as Northmantrader points out the the S and  P 500 ten year yield ratio is showing signs of a major long term top suggesting a significant asset allocation out of stocks into bonds possibly on flight to quality fears when the next crisis commences:
stock bond ratio

Thursday 19 January 2017

Global Economic Downturn Ahead?

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My Favorite Books

  • The Intelligent Investor
  • Liars Poker
  • One up on Wall Street
  • Beating the Street
  • Remniscience of a stock operator

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.